Confessions of An Economic Refugee

Notably absent from Conservative’s campaign platform this election were discussions to end abortion (good) or measures to increase Canada’s lagging productivity growth (very very bad).  While the former is obvious no brainer to the Conservative braintrust as the price of power, I am little concerned about the latter. 

Productivity growth is the only way to lift real incomes in Canada.  While its great that commodities prices (including oil,natural gas and gold) have bounced up sharply in last 3 years favouring Canada’s resource rich economy, over reliance of commodity wealth leaves Canada’s economy vulnerable and fragile as evidenced by the Netherland’s experience with their North Sea Oil discovery in the 60’s (i.e. Dutch Disease).  Canada’s productivity had already lagged that of the United States’ for some time.  While we’ve lucky to have been given this reprieve right now.  But as history as shown, commodity prices are cyclical (regardless of China or India’s grow trajectories).  Canada needs a vibrant, productive and diversified economy to fuel future economic prosperity. 

Otherwise it risks always being relegated to being an economic hinterland, a resources colony for the world.  That would be a pity when it could be so much more.

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Well the election is over and the voters have spoken.  Stephen Harper, leader of the "right of center" Conservative Party will be the next Prime Minister of Canada.

(BTW, in celebration of Canada’s uniqueness from the US – we take any differences we can get – Canada’s political colours are reversed.  Red is colour of the left of center Liberal Party, while blue is the party of the right of center Conservative party. In contrast to the Democratic blue and Republican red here in the US.)

Depending on where you get your news, this is either interpreted as a dramatic shift to the right for the previous left leaning, marijuana decriminalizing, gay-marriage supporting, health care socializing Canadians.  Or more prosaically, Canadians are just looking to clean out their closet after 13 years of mostly beneficial but somewhat corrupt Liberal rule in the tradition.

As GWBush personally phoned up PM-elect Harper to congratulate him on his electoral success (an diplomatic courtesy that was evidently not extended after Martin’s election victory in 2004), the right wing media throughout the US certainly to subscribe to the former thesis.

Polls from the notoriously pro-Liberal CBC suggest the latter.

Regardless this election and the outcome should be beneficial to Canada.  Though painted as a social conservative zealot by opponents, Harper is more of a policy wonk.  An economist(!) by training (Harper holds undergrad and graduate degrees in Economics) and cut his teeth devising economic policies for Reform (precursor to the Conservative) party of Canada in the early 90’s.  Harper ran his campaign on strong dose of western grit and toughness (Guns(!) for border guards, more police, tougher sentencing for crimes, increased defense spending, defense of Arctic sovereignty), accountability (ethics bill) and sensible economic strategies (cuts to consumption tax, mandated reduction of federal debt).  All of these measures will be good for Canada. 

More dubious are the additional $500m in agriculture subsidies he wants to dole out, a repeal of the Kyoto Accord, a ‘free vote’ on marriage and the stopping the decriminalization of marijuana.  It will be interesting to see how the gay marriage votes plays out. 

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Canada’s motto has always been "Peace, Order and Good Government" and we have always prided ourselves in being the more collegial, cohesive and commuity-oriented part of North America.  However naive this may sound, to have Good Government, we need strong institutions and an earnest policitical environment where we can debate policies on their merits and not their originators. 

That is why American-style negativist campaigning should not be rewarded in Canada regardless of the short-term electoral outcome.  GW Bush may have won the 2000 and 2004 elections on the backs of divisive campaigning but he did make the country a better place to govern.

Look at the US today as compared to back in 1999: It is a country more divided – economically, socially and obviously politically than every before.  It is a country where its religious heartland is at war with its godless coastal peripheries.

As a Canadian, I have always believed, perhaps naively, that the means by which one achieves power is as important as the actual goal itself and that unlike in American, where the concept of the ‘Permenant Campaign’ the  permeates the political culture, the electoral process in Canada is a means to establish an competent government.

Negative campaigning demeans the political process by appealing to our worse emotions – our unreasoned fears and our prejudices instead of focusing on the issues on hand and qualifications of the candidates.  It polarizes the electorate and poisons the parliamentary environment making it difficult for political parties to collaborate.

From an American perspective, this may seem like an a whiny appeal to play nice.  However ‘playing nice’ IS a central to Canadian values and that is why negative campaigning is Un-Canadian.

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Today is election day in the Great White North (i.e. Canada, land of Hockey, Maple Syrup and Celine Dion).

In probably the most closely contested election since, well the last election in ’04, every vote counts. 

Today will tell whether Canada is becoming more like the US in its election campaigning or its economic and environmental policies.  Whether voters will punish government corruption or cowed by fear of the unknown.  Being exiled to San Francisco, the US’ own version of Lotusland, I am a little indifferent to the result.  However I want to say this: 

Back in 1993, the ruling Conserative government led by a newly selected party leader ran a bungled and tired campaign, bereft of vision and burdened with 10 years of compromises and dirty deeds done while in government.  Their foes were the red Liberals, with little political baggage having been out of power for so long, with their party leader, the ‘Little Guy from Shewanigan’ who campaigned on his "Little Red Book" of policy, change and vision for a Liberal Canada.  Ultimately the Conservatives had to resort to US-style negative campaigning in a desperate in an all-in attempt to gain the victory.  They were punished for this scourched earth campaign and soundly trounced in that pivotal election that ushered in the way for 13 years of  Liberal Government. 

Today it looks like the tables are reversed with Liberals looking tired and beraggled and being beset with their 13 years of dirty deeds and compromises made while in power.  They have been outflanked by more their more visionary Conservatives opponents and it is the Liberals that have to resort to the destructive negative campaigning.  While the elections results have yet to be returned, all the other parallels in that election are present suggesting a similar result..and perhaps rightly so.

Regardless of the outcome here’s my salute to all my fellow resident Canucks for exercising their democratic right to hire or fire their country’s CEO for the next 4 years.

In a pathetic attempt to get some listing on the search engines, I am resorting to search adding links here.  Therefore, you can check out the election coverage here:

http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2006/

http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/

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People complain that jobs are disappearing.  This is true.  Technology is making jobs obsolete and outsourcing is shipping many other ones overseas.  But what people often don’t keep top of mind is that these changes in the environment and technology also new opportunties create new employment opportunities.  Even as early as 15 years ago, in the early 1990’s do you remember if you had even heard of any of the following jobs before?

• IT Manager
• Systems Analyst
• Networking Engineer
• Web Developer
• Web designer
• Web community manager
• Web content producer
• Web marketer
• Game producer
• Game designers
• 3D environment artists
• Lead character artist
• Hedge Fund administrator
• eBay merchant

These are all pretty well understood and respected jobs nowadays but chances are you never knew they existed when you were growing up. 5-10 years from now these following job titles be just as commonly known as the ones from the previous list (if they aren’t already):

• Corporate data steward
• Professional Blogger
• IP litigation paralegal
• Internet Advertising Manager
• BPO Engagement Manager
• Computer Security Expert
• Online Game Economist
• Genetics Engineer
• Programmatic Trading Algorithms Designer
• Internet Currencies Trader
• Search Engine Result Optimizer
• Google AdWords Designer
• eBay Buying Specialist
• Real Estate Staging Specialist

Here’s my point –  The chances are the job your kids will be dreaming of doing when they grow up didn’t exist when you were growing up (bar the old standbys such as Lawyers, Accountants, Teachers, Politicians, Police Officers, etc). If you think about it, it’s a good bet that the job you are doing today is not the job you dreamed about when you are growing up because your current job didn’t yet exist when you are growing up. 

So the next time the media cries about how all these jobs are being lost due to technology or because they are going overseas, take a brief pause and consider this random thought before you go off with your righteous indignation.  Afterall, would you really want to do exactly the same work that your 15th century cousins did?  Well I’m sure your 25th century cousins would feel the same way too.

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